COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE --- OUR ONLY HOPE FOR SURVIVING THE SINGULARITY

COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE --- OUR ONLY HOPE FOR SURVIVING THE SINGULARITY

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Over the next several decades there will be an explosion in the rate of technical development. The change is expected to be so great --- many call it the “Singularity.” It will drastically transform our --- economy --- society --- values --- bodies --- and minds --- in ways that could be very good --- or very bad.

This explosion will be fueled by the ever increasing power of computers. Within two decades machine intelligence is likely to vastly surpass all the powers of the human brain. This will produce superintelligences that can perform --- learning --- understanding --- mathematical --- scientific --- programming --- engineering --- robotic --- manufacturing --- and --- human interfacing --- related mental tasks much faster, better, and less expensively than humans. (For reasons why superintelligence will probably happen so soon, see http://fora.humanityplus.org/index.php?/topic/31-human-level-artificial-intelligence-and-its-consequences-are-near/ [ on this page at ] )

This superintelligence will enable breathtaking advances in many other technologies, including: --- nano-electronics --- quantum computing --- networking --- brain science --- brain manipulation, interfacing, & augmentation --- medicine --- life extension --- biotechnology --- genetic engineering --- synthetic biology --- nanotechnology --- molecular & self-organizing manufacturing --- robotics --- nano-robotics --- energy --- sensor networks --- surveillance --- weaponry --- cyber crime & warfare --- and --- interactive virtual worlds, friends, and lovers --- ones more detailed, interactive, and exciting than those that are real.

The Singularity will NOT occur in a vacuum.

It will NOT occur in a realm of pure science, engineering, or philosophy. It will NOT occur in one instant, one year, or one decade.

Instead, it WILL occur --- over multiple decades --- in the real world --- one dominated by struggles for --- personal --- corporate --- political --- and national --- survival, money, and power. How the Singularity’s wildly transformative technologies will be developed and deployed will be decided largely by collective entities --- by corporations --- governments --- political parties --- militaries --- bureaucracies --- interest groups --- criminal gangs --- the media --- and public opinion.

The increasing rate and degree of change made possible by the Singularity --- and the power it could give a very few to benefit --- or harm --- very many --- will tend to make the world much less stable --- and much more difficult for human institutions to govern.

In three to five decades the Singularity could drastically increase the world’s production of food and necessities ---and/or--- replace almost all human work for pennies an hour in a way that would prevent most people from earning a living. It could create a relatively evenly shared plenty --- or --- extremely concentrated wealth and power. It could enable a plurality of free, networked voices and collaboration --- or --- enable machines to watch everything people do, say, and think --- and punish those who disobey. It could greatly lengthen life and health --- or --- create synthetic life forms that accidentally wreack global havoc and death. It could create machines that greatly empower individual humans and their minds --- or --- enable superintelligences --- controlled by one group, one person, or one system of machines --- to hack into --- and take control of --- virtually all the machines upon which humans depend --- so as to enslave or kill most, or all, of humanity.

We cannot stop the advent of superintelligence. Too many people already know how much --- technological --- economic --- political --- and --- military --- advantage can be gained by the nations and corporations that are first to substantially deploy it. It cannot be stopped because computer technology and our understanding of intelligence are already so advanced --- that most of the world’s leading nations and technology companies could develop it --- within roughly a decade --- if they tried.

It is arguable that we will actually --- need --- superintelligence. It is possible that without it we might not be able to deal with many of the problems the world already is facing. It is also possible that if we were smart enough --- as a species --- we could learn how to use it relatively safely to create tremendous benefits for mankind.

Given the complex, and rapidly-changing mix of choices, promises, and threats the Singularity will present --- if humanity is to have any chance of surviving well through this century --- we must harness the coming explosion of technology --- itself --- to vastly increase our collective intelligence, wisdom, and responsibility.

If we --- as a species --- are intelligent enough to design machines that think much more efficiently than we do --- then why can’t we also design technology to enable groups of humans --- when connected by the internet --- and augmented by machine superintelligences --- to think together much, much more intelligently, fairly, and responsibly?

Current computer and internet hardware is already powerful enough to substantially increase humanity’s collective intelligence. And with the technology of the coming decades we will be able to increase our collective intelligence much, much more.

The major barriers will not be technological. They will come --- from human nature --- from religious, cultural, and national values --- and from selfish interests.

Seen from a system-wide viewpoint --- the current collective intelligence of many human institutions is stunningly stupid. Here are just a few examples:

-The 2008 collapse of the world’s financial markets was caused by: --- the false meme that average American residential real estate values never drop (although they had done so twice within the previous eighty years) --- a system of short-term incentives that rewarded people for taking breathtakingly irresponsible risks with other people’s money --- and --- by financial rating agencies and legislators that were --- in effect --- bribed to ignore such dangerous risks.

-America’s Social Security Trust Fund has been an obvious, worthless, sham for decades. It has no net worth. It is nothing but IOU’s from the federal government to itself. The trillions of dollars of Treasury bonds the fund holds have no more value to the federal government than the blank paper it is free --- at any time --- to print into new notes for equal amounts and try to sell --- (i.e. borrow with). And yet our public forum is so dysfunctional that most politicians, media voices, and citizens have acted for decades as if the trust fund had many trillions of dollars of --- actual --- worth. The second President Bush hinted the trust fund’s bonds had little worth --- during his ill-fated attempt to reform Social Security --- but, for political reasons, he was not willing to drive home just what an obvious, and harmful, lie both political parties had been telling the American people for decades.

-America’s federal government has been so short sighted it has run up --- over many decades and under both political parties --- fifty to eighty trillion dollars of unfunded obligations that will come due in the next few decades. These obligations are highly likely --- given most current economic predictions --- to throw our country into an economic crisis much, much deeper than that we are currently in. That is, unless the federal government has the political will to substantially raise taxes or reduce the benefits it has promised under many entitlement programs and pension agreements. Most political observers believe our government will make such difficult changes --- but only after our economy has been so drastically harmed by this expected debt crisis that our government will be absolutely forced to do so.

As these examples --- and thousands of others that could be listed --- indicate --- many of society's current collective systems are not intelligent enough to deal with many of our current problems.

If this is true --- it is almost certain that such systems will not be smart and wise enough to deal well with the much more disruptive choices, changes, and challenges the Singularity will bring.

SO, HOW CAN WE RAISE THE COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE OF HUMAN SOCIETY AND ITS INSTITUTIONS TO BEST DEAL WITH THE SINGULARITY?

This is the subject I would like to see discussed under this topic.

I will start by adding some of my own thoughts below. But I look forward to hearing yours.

[Currently comment can be placed at under corresponding text at http://fora.humanityplus.org/index.php?/topic/70-collective-intelligence-our-only-hope-for-surviving-the-singularity/ and http://www.int4um.blogspot.com/ ]

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P.S.

For some thinking on how to make democratic government more intelligent with today’s technology, go to:

MIT's Center for Collective Intelligence at http://cci.mit.edu/ , including their experiment in collective intelligence using climate change as the test subject at http://www.climatecollaboratorium.org/web/guest

the “Personal Democracy Forum” at http://personaldemocracy.com/ , and in particular to their anthology of essays on the subject at “It's Time to Reboot America” at http://rebooting.personaldemocracy.com/files/Rebooting_America.pdf

For a video describing one currently proposed collective intelligence system see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue-ibFH9zTA (Thanks to TransAlchemy for pointing this out under the Sousveillance topic)

For a more futurist discussion that relates to how the Singularity might effect human governance, read Goertzel and Bugaj’s article on “Sousveilance” at http://fora.humanityplus.org/index.php?/topic/27-sousveillance-and-artificial-general-intelligence/